Jill Monroe
06-08-2010, 12:28 PM
Primary balloting gauges electorate's mood in key contests
55 mins ago
In an election year dominated by political intrigue and voter unpredictability, today's Super Tuesday primary may offer the clearest sense yet of the nation's mood heading into November's midterms — that is, if you can keep track of all the different storylines.
Voters in nearly a dozen states will cast their ballots in contests that run the gamut from the routine to the unconventional, taking in themes that range from anti-government protest to anti-corporate populism. It's a primary day that finds a woman who once suggested bartering live chickens for medical care — Nevada's Sue Lowden — in the fight of her political life, while another woman, tea party favorite Nikki Haley, has been accused of two extramarital affairs during a bruising primary campaign, but is likely to win South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial nomination.
For all the wild cards involved, today's races nevertheless feature a few big themes that could be potential game-changers this November. One striking question, for instance, is whether 2010 could be the year of the Republican woman. Female GOP candidates are poised to win several big primaries today, including in California, South Carolina and Nevada.
Another issue is the perennial incumbent-versus-challenger debate. Are voters as anti-establishment and anti-Washington as polls suggest? In Tuesday's races, the question is a bit more complicated than usual. At least three candidates on the ballot today — Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina in California and Bill Halter in Arkansas — have positioned themselves as "outsiders" running against politics as usual, even though their candidacies are largely fueled by insider support and money.
With so many contests to watch, here's a quick look at five of today's most pivotal races:
Nevada's GOP Senate primary
In what is perhaps the most important primary of the day, three Republicans are vying to face Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Up until a week ago, Lowden was the frontrunner, but after a series of campaign missteps including the chicken gaffe, tea party favorite Sharron Angle took a substantial last-minute lead in the polls — something Reid is no doubt pleased about. Polls show that Reid, whose unfavorable rating has averaged around 50 percent for months, has his best shot at re-election if he squares off against Angle. No matter who wins — Lowden, Angle or businessman Danny Tarkanian — all face a serious fundraising deficit to Reid, who currently has $9 million in cash ready to spend.
South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial primary
Polls show this is Nikki Haley's race to lose. In spite of the affair allegations, Haley has a 20-point lead in the polls against her nearest competitor, Gresham Barrett: 43 percent versus 23 percent in the latest Public Policy Polling survey. Others in the hunt include state Attorney General Henry McMaster, with 16 percent, and Lt Gov. Andre Bauer, with 12 percent. It's still not clear whether Haley can make it past the 50 percent threshold to avoid a June 22 runoff. If a runoff does happen, Haley could be hit with one of the few subjects that hasn't yet come up in the GOP primary: her close ties to disgraced Gov. Mark Sanford, who views Haley as his political heir apparent.
Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff
Embattled incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln is on the ballot against Halter, but really, it feels more like a race between Lincoln and entrenched Washington interests unhappy with her performance in the Senate. Labor unions and other outside groups have spent at least $10 million in TV ads and get-out-the-vote efforts to unseat Lincoln. She's got the backing of the White House and former President Clinton, who campaigned on her behalf. If she loses, she'll be the third Senate incumbent — after Arlen Specter and Bob Bennett — to lose a primary. If Halter wins, the question is whether the outside groups that spent so heavily to unseat Lincoln will stay as engaged in a race against a GOP candidate, Rep. John Boozman.
California GOP Senate primary
Vying to face Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer this November, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina had a big lead heading into Tuesday's voting. She's facing former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate, and state Rep. Chuck DeVore, a conservative backed by the tea party movement. Fiorina is running as an outsider in the race, but she was recruited by GOP officials in Washington and has the backing of several top Republicans, most notably Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Fiorina, who lagged behind Campbell for most of the primary campaign, had a last minute surge, in part because she spent in upwards of $6 million of her own money. Against Boxer, she'll likely have to dip into her personal funds again, as the California Democrat already has nearly $10 million in the bank.
California GOP gubernatorial primary
The big story of this race is simple: campaign cash. In the run-up to today's primary, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman spent nearly $70 million of her own money, setting new records even in California, where statewide campaigns always break records thanks to its status as the nation's most populous state. Whitman's challenger, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, also a former Silicon Valley chieftain, spent nearly $25 million. While Whitman looks to win easily today — she leads Poizner by nearly 20 points, according to the Field Poll — the big question is how much is she willing to spend against her Democratic opponent, state Attorney General (and former Gov.) Jerry Brown.
— Holly Bailey is a senior political writer for Yahoo! News.
55 mins ago
In an election year dominated by political intrigue and voter unpredictability, today's Super Tuesday primary may offer the clearest sense yet of the nation's mood heading into November's midterms — that is, if you can keep track of all the different storylines.
Voters in nearly a dozen states will cast their ballots in contests that run the gamut from the routine to the unconventional, taking in themes that range from anti-government protest to anti-corporate populism. It's a primary day that finds a woman who once suggested bartering live chickens for medical care — Nevada's Sue Lowden — in the fight of her political life, while another woman, tea party favorite Nikki Haley, has been accused of two extramarital affairs during a bruising primary campaign, but is likely to win South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial nomination.
For all the wild cards involved, today's races nevertheless feature a few big themes that could be potential game-changers this November. One striking question, for instance, is whether 2010 could be the year of the Republican woman. Female GOP candidates are poised to win several big primaries today, including in California, South Carolina and Nevada.
Another issue is the perennial incumbent-versus-challenger debate. Are voters as anti-establishment and anti-Washington as polls suggest? In Tuesday's races, the question is a bit more complicated than usual. At least three candidates on the ballot today — Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina in California and Bill Halter in Arkansas — have positioned themselves as "outsiders" running against politics as usual, even though their candidacies are largely fueled by insider support and money.
With so many contests to watch, here's a quick look at five of today's most pivotal races:
Nevada's GOP Senate primary
In what is perhaps the most important primary of the day, three Republicans are vying to face Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Up until a week ago, Lowden was the frontrunner, but after a series of campaign missteps including the chicken gaffe, tea party favorite Sharron Angle took a substantial last-minute lead in the polls — something Reid is no doubt pleased about. Polls show that Reid, whose unfavorable rating has averaged around 50 percent for months, has his best shot at re-election if he squares off against Angle. No matter who wins — Lowden, Angle or businessman Danny Tarkanian — all face a serious fundraising deficit to Reid, who currently has $9 million in cash ready to spend.
South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial primary
Polls show this is Nikki Haley's race to lose. In spite of the affair allegations, Haley has a 20-point lead in the polls against her nearest competitor, Gresham Barrett: 43 percent versus 23 percent in the latest Public Policy Polling survey. Others in the hunt include state Attorney General Henry McMaster, with 16 percent, and Lt Gov. Andre Bauer, with 12 percent. It's still not clear whether Haley can make it past the 50 percent threshold to avoid a June 22 runoff. If a runoff does happen, Haley could be hit with one of the few subjects that hasn't yet come up in the GOP primary: her close ties to disgraced Gov. Mark Sanford, who views Haley as his political heir apparent.
Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff
Embattled incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln is on the ballot against Halter, but really, it feels more like a race between Lincoln and entrenched Washington interests unhappy with her performance in the Senate. Labor unions and other outside groups have spent at least $10 million in TV ads and get-out-the-vote efforts to unseat Lincoln. She's got the backing of the White House and former President Clinton, who campaigned on her behalf. If she loses, she'll be the third Senate incumbent — after Arlen Specter and Bob Bennett — to lose a primary. If Halter wins, the question is whether the outside groups that spent so heavily to unseat Lincoln will stay as engaged in a race against a GOP candidate, Rep. John Boozman.
California GOP Senate primary
Vying to face Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer this November, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina had a big lead heading into Tuesday's voting. She's facing former Rep. Tom Campbell, a moderate, and state Rep. Chuck DeVore, a conservative backed by the tea party movement. Fiorina is running as an outsider in the race, but she was recruited by GOP officials in Washington and has the backing of several top Republicans, most notably Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Fiorina, who lagged behind Campbell for most of the primary campaign, had a last minute surge, in part because she spent in upwards of $6 million of her own money. Against Boxer, she'll likely have to dip into her personal funds again, as the California Democrat already has nearly $10 million in the bank.
California GOP gubernatorial primary
The big story of this race is simple: campaign cash. In the run-up to today's primary, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman spent nearly $70 million of her own money, setting new records even in California, where statewide campaigns always break records thanks to its status as the nation's most populous state. Whitman's challenger, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, also a former Silicon Valley chieftain, spent nearly $25 million. While Whitman looks to win easily today — she leads Poizner by nearly 20 points, according to the Field Poll — the big question is how much is she willing to spend against her Democratic opponent, state Attorney General (and former Gov.) Jerry Brown.
— Holly Bailey is a senior political writer for Yahoo! News.